Iran is not only purposely enriching uranium and installing advanced centrifuges; it does some of this openly to wring potential concessions.
Iran has been misleading the world for decades about its nuclear program. At various junctions, Iran has exposed part of what it is up to. This has led to a great deal of knowledge ostensibly about Iran’s enrichment program and also other elements of Iran’s nuclear program.
However, assertions that it continues to lie and obfuscate reveal a deeper problem. Most nuclear programs are clandestine, but Iran has always actively used its program to wring concessions from the West. As such Iran’s nuclear program is not a pure program, like the Manhattan Project in the 1940s or the Pakistan and India nuclear arms race.
What Iran’s program reveals, particularly the way it is shoehorned into a Clausewitz-like war-politics-policy mold, means that the program is not in itself an end to a means. Iran may not want to build or test a bomb, yet. It may not have a way to test it yet. It may not have a way to put it on a missile yet. Yet it continues to enrich and enrich uranium. It stockpiles the uranium.
Israel has recently accused Iran of lying to the world regarding its banned nuclear activity. The BBC noted that Israel’s Prime minister made these accusations “ahead of a meeting next week where International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi is due to present a report on its probe into unexplained nuclear material found at three undeclared sites in Iran.”
The report also noted that “Western countries suspect Iran might be seeking to build nuclear weapons in violation of conventions – something Iran strongly denies. Israel considers Iran, which does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and calls for its elimination, a major threat to both Israel and the wider world.”
Why is this important?
Iran is indeed misleading the world. It is not only purposely enriching uranium and installing advanced centrifuges; it does some of this openly to wring potential concessions; it is also doing things in secret. The precise amount of secrecy as compared to what Iran wants to show the world is key to how Iran engineers coverage of its program. This means that there is conflict also that plays out between Israel seeking to warn others about the program, and Iran seeking to hope the world doesn’t notice what it is up to.
There is a third factor now. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has illustrated how a nuclear-armed country may take more risks, knowing that western democracies don’t want to risk nuclear conflict. That means that Iran understands the deterrent factor of having a bomb. Once it gets closer to the device, it can take more risks.
Iran already feels impunity in the region. It has launched attempted drone attacks on Israel and its proxies in Iraq attack US forces and Turkish forces. It has seized Greek ships in the Persian Gulf, mined ships in the Gulf of Oman and sends weapons to Yemen, Lebanon and other places. An Iran that gets closer to having more enriched uranium can use this to blackmail the region. That is why the Ukraine crisis could aid Iran.
Furthermore, voices linked to the pro-Iran lobby in the US have now shifted to writing commentary about Russia. These voices urge the US not to escalate against Russia and claim that the West must have “realist” goals in forcing Ukraine to concede to Russia. This is how they also want the Middle East to deal with Iran.
As such the pro-Iran lobby, now becoming the pro-Russia lobby, is constantly wary of “war” and especially a conflict with “nuclear-armed Russia.” Iran is operationalizing this lobby when it wants to threaten “war.” Tehran’s lies about its nuclear program appear to foreshadow worse to come. We know that historically nuclear programs are clandestine. Iran’s program is more complex and it is in part designed to make claims to the world that sometimes go beyond its capacity. On the other hand, it also continues to enrich and stockpile uranium, knowing that if it were to test a device it would likely need to consult in part with its friends in Beijing; as well as Russia, Pakistan and Turkey.