Hezbollah has the drones, to carry out an attack and Iran has a history of “drip drip” of drone threats. This is what gives the two bragging rights.
Hezbollah has displayed awesome power “in the sky of the disputed maritime area,” claims Iran’s media. Iran’s Tasnim, which is close to the IRGC and thus reflects the regime, has continued bragging about Hezbollah’s use of drones on Saturday to try to threaten Israel’s economic offshore zone.
It now looks increasingly like this propaganda ploy was all designed not necessarily to cause much destruction, but so that Hezbollah could publish a doctored and fake video claiming to be from the drones, and also so that Iran could pretend it had done something against Israel. Israel downed three Hezbollah drones on Saturday.
The context of the attack on Saturday was that Iran has been threatening Israel for months now as tensions have been rising. Hezbollah also has threatened Israel due to a maritime dispute that the US is trying to solve between Israel and Lebanon.
Iran and Hezbollah — better together
Taken together this gives motive to Iran and Hezbollah to do something. Hezbollah has the means, the drones, to carry out an attack. And Hezbollah had the opportunity on Saturday in the wake of Syria blaming Israel for airstrikes in Tartus. The whole point here then is that Hezbollah operationalized drones, but didn’t use a large number of them.
Iran has done this before with a kind of “drip drip” of drone threats since 2018. But Iran doesn’t unveil the full drone and missile power it has. Iran has done things differently when attacking Erbil, Asad base in Iraq, the UAE, Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia and other sites in Saudi Arabia.
So Iran and Hezbollah prefer the bragging rights in the wake of the drone threat. Iran’s media says that the drones “penetrated” and “carried strategic messages that the Zionists themselves admit.” Hezbollah says the drones were only doing surveillance and that they “performed the mission correctly and delivered the necessary messages.”
Hezbollah claims to be creating “deterrence” with the drones and creating an “equation.” The goal here is to show that Hezbollah has asymmetric ways to attack. “This deterrence is not only limited to protecting Lebanon’s marine resources against the aggression of the occupying regime; It is also in the context of dealing with Israeli threats against other resistance groups and Palestinians.”
The threat of Hezbollah
Now Hezbollah says its “air force” capabilities are established. “While most of the Zionists’ attention was initially focused on Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, now the drones of the Lebanese resistance have created a new concern for the occupying regime.” This is a big deal and clearly, Hezbollah and Iran are seeking now to unveil the power of Hezbollah’s drones.
Iran’s media says the drones sent a message to “the Americans and Israelis by flying its [Hezbollah] drones over its field of action has a dangerous content for the Zionist regime and its plans in the sea borders of Lebanon.” Hezbollah and Iran again slammed US envoy Amos Hochstein, who has been involved in the negotiations regarding the maritime issue. This is not the first time Hezbollah slammed Hochstein. It has used antisemitic language in the past against him and accuses him of working with Israel.
“While Israel is trying to pretend that its field, where this regime has been drilling and exploring energy, is not part of the disputed area…by sending its drones to the field, Hezbollah emphasized that this field is not out of the equation and is considered part of Lebanon’s rights in the territorial waters of this country.” Hezbollah says it used several types of unarmed drones to fly into the disputed area and that Hezbollah knows “well where the positions where the Israeli air defense systems are located.”
The overall point here is that Iran’s media is boasting that now a new “equation” exists. Hezbollah is trying to lift the veil on a new naval threat. It boasts of “highly skilled” naval operations and special forces. “We know that Hezbollah’s capabilities are much more important than what was demonstrated by the flight of these drones, and in fact, the main purpose of this drone operation was to deliver messages to Israel, not exclusively to damage its facilities.”
The Iranian report notes that Israeli experts have expressed concern about Hezbollah’s threats. In addition, the article notes that Hezbollah used a missile during the 2006 war to damage an Israeli ship.
The point that the article and Iran and Hezbollah, in general, are making, is that Hezbollah has a serious threat that it can unveil at sea targeting Israel. This may be mostly bragging but the messaging is important.
Hezbollah wants to show it can “deter” Israel, and the goal here is, in a sense, to prevent war, rather than start a conflict. At least for now Hezbollah and Iran prefer the bragging rights, to actually doing anything that causes major damage and could result in an Israeli response.