Ayelet Shaked’s Yamina party just manages to cross the electoral threshold, while Nitzan Horowitz’s Meretz would fail entirely to do so.
The number of MKs per party is expected to change drastically, according to Hebrew media, citing a new poll that was conducted shortly following Bennett’s resignation from the next elections.
The poll’s data was collected through the Israeli internet panel Panel4All, and was conducted between Wednesday and Thursday with the participation of 593 respondents who make up a representative sample of the Israeli adult population aged 18 and over, comprised of 511 Jews and 82 Arabs.
The results indicate that the right-wing bloc will be large enough for Netanyahu to be prime minister once again with 63 seats combined in the coalition.
However, this is only given the assumption that Netanyahu would work with Ayelet Shaked’s Yamina party – which only just manages to cross the electoral threshold with 4 seats.
Meanwhile, the Religious Zionist Party’s number of seats is expected to double to 10 seats. The poll also showed that Blue and White as well as Shas both have their seats increased by one in the Knesset with 9 and 8 seats respectively. The number of seats for United Torah Judaism and Joint List remains the same, with 7 and 6 seats respectively.
On the other hand, the Labor Party led by Merav Michaeli, who was severely disappointed that the Metro Law was not approved in the Knesset, has her party’s seats decreased by one and ended up with 6 in the poll. New Hope led by Gideon Saar strengthens to 5 seats and moves away from the electoral threshold after many other polls estimated that they would only receive 4. Five seats are also registered for Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, is also left with 4 seats.
The bad news for the center-left-wing bloc is that Meretz’s results come below the electoral threshold, only receiving 2.2% of the votes in the current poll.
The whole picture
According to the poll’s results, the government could have a Netanyahu bloc with 59 seats, and the Lapid bloc would have 55 seats with the Joint List in the middle with 6 seats.
Meretz’s drop below the electoral threshold changes the result of how many seats the other parties would get, and thus giving an advantage to the bloc of parties that support Netanyahu.
With Yamina, Netanyahu’s supposed coalition would reach a majority of 63 seats in the next Knesset.
In response to the poll’s results, Likud MK Israel Katz told 103 FM that “Shaked does not rule out a partnership with a Netanyahu-led government.”
Katz also said that he believes “a large majority of the public is happy. I see the joy in the fall of the government. With such energy, in my opinion, there is a chance that we are doing the right thing, and with the right message, we will bring more than 61 seats to the parties that support Netanyahu for prime minister.”
“Shaked does not rule out a partnership with a Netanyahu-led government.”
Likud MK Israel Katz
On Friday, the 24th Knesset dissolved, with Lapid temporarily taking the role as Prime Minister. The next elections are scheduled for November 1. The next election will reportedly cost the state around NIS 3 billion according to a report from Walla last month, citing the Finance Ministry.