Nigerian bonds are posting some of the best gains in emerging markets as investors bet that rulingparty candidate, Bola Tinubu, who’s taken an early lead in the nation’s presidential election tally, will offer reforms to pull Africa’s largest economy out of a fiscal mess, according to Bloomberg.
Five of the West African nation’s dollar bonds ranked among the 10 best performers on Monday in a Bloomberg index of 71 emerging and frontier nations.
The country’s sovereign risk premium narrowed the most this year on Monday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. The equity benchmark in Lagos rose to an eight-month high. Counting is ongoing after the Feb. 25 presidential election, though early trends show Tinubu winning three key states.Money managers expect the nation’s next leader to take the unpopular decisions required to boost government revenue, stabilize the currency and cut down debt.
“Markets seem to be increasingly pricing in a Tinubu win, given the expectations that he could push through reforms quicker than others,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, the chief economist at Gemcorp Capital Management in London.
“But it is difficult to see this holding if the election winner is unable to quickly turn around the macro story with visible reforms and personnel changes,” he added.
Some of the gains may also be driven by bargain hunters after Nigeria’s bonds tumbled in the run-up to the elections, he said.